Questions tagged [uncertainty]

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Is probabilistic modus tollens a fallacy?

Modus tollens takes the form of "If P, then Q. Not Q. Therefore, not P." A probabilistic version of Modus Tollens says "If P, then Q is very improbable. Q. Therefore, P is very improbable". Elliott Sober, in his paper against the design argument,…
thinkingman
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Should doubt be epistemically justified?

If you doubt a claim X, should this very state of being in doubt be justified? How does one justify doubt in the first place? One can technically doubt anything except experience. But few would say that doubt in every area is justified. For example,…
thinkingman
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Is persistent uncertainty irrational?

Doubt, uncertainty, and questioning things are considered hallmarks in philosophy. Not being certain in a belief is considered a virtue due to how often we are mistaken. But philosophy is also associated with finding out the truth about things.…
thinkingman
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According to Dustin Locke, when can we be "practically certain"?

Dustin Locke argues that assuming that p is (rather than engage in probabilistic reasoning regarding p) is rationally permissible when it is practically certain. So understood, moral or practical certainty is epistemic in nature, though it seems to…
user65174
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Quantum vs classic dangerous decisions under many-worlds interpretation

Consider the following scenario: You are a military truck driver tasked with delivering supplies. The destination is close to enemy territory. To not be predictable, each truck randomizes the route they take (among N possible routes). Deadly…
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Does 1. extra-, 2. intra-polation fall under abduction, induction or deduction?

How does extrapolation relate to abduction, deduction, and/or induction? Scilicet, does abduction, deduction, and/or induction fully encompass Extrapolation? Same question for Interpolation. I screenshot from this Youtube video that…
user8572
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Certainty, or at least near-certainty, in philosophy

I love thinking about and discussing philosophy; I consider it an extremely important discipline. But: In mathematics, many results have been discovered that are virtually certain to be true, especially over the past 300 years or so. There now…
Daniel Asimov
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Is an omniscient entity self-refuting?

Consider a thought experiment involving 'something' and three individuals attempting to understand it: one person claims it is a red ball, another asserts it is a simulation, and the third insists it is a cat. Now, an omniscient entity enters and…
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Why are physically impossible and logically impossible concepts considered separate in terms of probability?

It is considered self contradictory to say that a triangular square exists. This is because it’s a ridiculous concept. It is contradictory inherently. But why is postulating some hidden devil or angel or god controlling things in a hidden manner not…
thinkingman
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