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Philosophy Stack Exchange

Questions tagged [probability]

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Why don't fair coin tosses "add up"? Or... is "gambler's fallacy" really valid?

I have always been perplexed by a seeming paradox in probability that I'm sure has some simple, well-known explanation. We say that a "fair coin" or whatever has "no memory." At each toss the odds are once again reset at 50:50. Hence the "gambler's…
Nelson Alexander
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Isn't the notion that everything will occur in an infinite timeline an example of the gambler's fallacy?

I've seen a few different formulations of this, but the most famous is "monkeys on a typewriter" - that if you put a team of monkeys on a typewriter, given infinite time, they will eventually produce the works of Shakespeare, and indeed every text…
Lou
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Interpret Bayesian probability as frequentist probability?

It is usually said that the Bayesian probability is a subjective concept, quantifying one's degree of belief in something, while the frequentist probability is the the fraction of certain outcomes when observation is conducted many times (either in…
D.F.J.
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Have I found a paradox, or is the universe digital? Or am I just plain wrong?

If the universe is analog, there must exist an infinite number of positions. This raises an interesting question. Let me boil it down to something familiar: a table and an ashtray. I'll let the ashtray be square, just for convenience. In an analog…
Mads Aggerholm
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Does every possible event have non-zero probability?

Almost every human being would agree that 2 + 2 != 5. In a sense, this is a logical impossibility. However, almost every human being would also agree that pigs can't fly. Some, however, are adamant in suggesting that this event still has a non zero…
thinkingman
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Isn’t everything absurdly improbable?

Isn’t every event by definition improbable in the sense that each event precedes an infinite series of causes that could have (theoretically atleast) been different? We think of someone winning five lotteries as extremely improbable and a rare…
thinkingman
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Is the notion of "Complex System" a philosophy of science? Is it the opposite of Reductionism? Is it related to Holism?

I have tried to come to terms with the notion of "complex systems" of which I heard in one of the lessons at school though without too much depth. I grasp that a complex system is such that the behavior of the elements in the system do not yield…
Luna
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Is there any rigorous definition of just one single random choice?

The theory of probability uses random variables, which avoids the need to define what one single random choice means. Yet in everyday conversations about probability, even professional probabilists often talk about making one single random…
Daniel Asimov
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Is there any literature on the relationship between responsibility and probability?

If A causes B and I am doing A (willingly, knowingly, ...), then I can be held responsible for B. But what if probabilities are involved? Thought experiment: If you roll a 1 on a die you win. You get the die from me and I can chose between a…
qollin
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Is the SETI project built on false premises?

The SETI project analyzes signals and looks for patterns, some of which include prime number sequences that have an absurdly low improbability of occurring. It does this to detect intelligent life. However, we have no independent evidence of life…
thinkingman
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Does single case chance actually exist?

Does chance actually exist for a single case? Even for a coin, what does it mean to say that there is a 50% chance that the next coin toss will land on heads? Someone might say that this means that if one were to throw this coin an infinite number…
thinkingman
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Hilbert's Sixth Problem: Is Kolmogorov's solution the last word?

The demand for axiomatization of probability was put forward by Hilbert at the very beginning of the past century: it was the sixth problem in his famous twenty three problems he deemed of high importance. Hilbert's sixth problem regarded the…
L.M. Student
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Is a "fair coin toss" a logical contradiction?

A previous question asked about the reality of the gambler's fallacy, in which logic appears to offend common sense. In light of the answers, I am now wondering about the other side of the coin, so to speak. In physical reality, the "history" of the…
Nelson Alexander
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What justifies probability in the case of a onetime experiment?

If I have an "experiment", the results of which can be classified clearly into "outcomes" (like rolling a die), then I can make a concrete and verifiable empirical claim that "if you repeat this experiment many times, the frequency of this outcome…
Jack M
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Is all of probability fundamentally subjective and unneeded as a term outright?

What is the real probability that a person will be murdered tomorrow somewhere in the world? It seems like there should be a right answer to this. In fact, most of us would bet tens of millions of dollars that atleast one person will be murdered…
thinkingman
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