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Questions tagged [probability]

deals with computing probabilities for many commonly occurring events in the game of poker

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Pocket pair starting hands vs. probability of opponent having a pocket pair

According to Wikipedia, the probability of being dealt any pocket pair as the starting hand is ~6% (78/1326=0.0588), but yet the probability of facing another player holding a larger pair when holding a pocket pair yourself in pre-flop is…
Theo
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Starting hands probability

The following is a passage from Wikipedia on starting hands probability: The 1,326 starting hands can be reduced for purposes of determining the probability of starting hands for Hold 'em—since suits have no relative value in poker, many of these…
Theo
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Drawing Dead Preflop?

Suppose there is some situation where Player A moves all-in and ALL Players call such that all players are all-in (they have equal amounts of chips, so no side-pots). Is there a possible distribution of cards such that Player A is drawing dead…
user45266
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Systematic all-in

This is a theoretical question, following what I have seen in some low blinds cash games. You generally cannot buy-in more than 100BB. Say at some point, you reached 10,000 BB. All you adversaries have about 100BB: how good is to go all-in on each…
wwjoze
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Best hand versus AA

Statistically what is the best hand versus AA (other than AA) I had read 56, 67, 78 Suited not the suit of any ace 56 being the best I cannot figure how 56 is better Ran on poker stove win + loss win tie …
paparazzo
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Equity calculation

Flop = T♥ 7♥ 6♥ Player 1 = 4♠ 3♥ Player 2 = 5♥ 2♠ Whats the equity of Player 1 on this flop ? Equity calculators give it 43.54% (18.5% for tie and 25.04% for win). No matter how hard i tried to break it down on simple probabilities and try to reach…
Korn
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Probability of x pocket pairs at a table of n people (NLHE)?

With n people at a table, what is the probability that x of them are dealt pocket pairs? There are several easy ways to approximate this but I was wondering there was an elegant solution. Any takers?
Matt
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Starting hands head up

Does anyone have charts for starting hands heads by position up or even order of hands? I know any Ace and any pair is valuable but I cannot find more specific guidelines. I found order of hands heads up here AA 0.8520371 A4s 0.5903364 K5 …
paparazzo
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How do I calculate poker hand probabilities?

This is a tutorial for calculating poker probabilities from scratch. It is what I learned in my degree and even beforehand when I created and 5-card draw hand strength calculator. The intention of this post is to make a cleaner community without…
Luis Masuelli
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Hold'em: Why does K♠️7♠️ beat A♠️2♠️ more frequently than K♠️8♠️ does?

According to this site: K♠️7♠️ beats A♠️2♠️ 39.10% of the time (and ties 0.62%). K♠️8♠️ beats A♠️2♠️ 38.71% of the time (and ties 0.61%). Why is this? I expected the two probabilities to be the same. My reasoning was: For any community cards such…
tba
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What are the odds of having 2 Quads in the same hand?

Just watched a video that went as follows: Player 1 (Button): Q♥Q♠ Player 2: 9♥9⋄ Player 3: 2♣2♠ Flop: Q⋄9♠Q♣ Turn: 5♠ River: 9♣ So player 1 slow plays everything, player 2 has 9s full of Qs post flop and a quad by the river. I was…
Mat
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What are the actual odds of being dealt pocket Aces?

I have been looking at the way people calculate the odds of poker hands for a few hours and i think there is a HUGE flaw. In poker a player is never dealt two CONSECUTIVE cards. This in my view changes the odds, while also making the number of…
Extrainnings
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Formula for making a single pair on the flop

I'm trying to get the probability of pairing only one hole card on the flop. According to this calculator, http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/calculator?card1=8&card2=13&chance_format=probability&decimals=9 the probability is 0.269387755 How do I get…
Justin Carlson
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Why isn't every value player rich?

I'm a beginner, sorry if this question is absurd. If a player simply bets with probabilities in mind, and always made the correct move for every action, would s/he become rich in the long run? If this is the case, what kind of a sample size is "the…
Christian Bouwense
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Can anyone suggest a limit holdem training app for Android?

First time poster in this part of the world, so apologies if I've posted this in the wrong area. In short; I used to play a lot of Poker in University over a decade ago, and then continued to play for a couple of years after graduating (reasonably…
user8812
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