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I am looking for a graph of some +EV poker player that plots the different outcomes of each hand played in a NLH-cashgame, such that the x axes is the outcome (for example measured in dollars or big blinds) and the y axes the number of hands that had this certain outcome.

For example: Suppose you played 5 hands in a session, where in 3 of them you did neither lose nor win any money, in 1 hand you won 5 dollars and in one you lost 3 dollars. Then the value of the graphic at -3 would be 1, at 0 it would be 3, at 5 it would be 1, and elsewhere the function would be 0. I am looking for such a graphic of some good poker player over at least 1000 hands.

I want to highlight the fact that it is reasonable to use a normal distribution to approximate the outcome of each hand and can therefore be used to calculate the risk of ruin. Anyone has an idea where I can find such a graph?

I am grateful for any advice!

Babypopo
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  • Not see how distribution of hand pot size is valuable for bankroll. What matter is the net over a period of time. If you are down $1000 over the last 100 hands you need a bankroll to support it. The size of those pots is not a factor. – paparazzo Jun 14 '17 at 16:32
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    Pokertracker supports such graphs. It is expensive though. I will look around tomorrow for a free alternative. Also. X and Y axes should be swapped. The general rule is: the interesting factor should be displayed on the y-axes. – Raymond Jun 15 '17 at 21:09
  • Thank you for your time! Let me know if you find anything helpful! – Babypopo Jun 18 '17 at 11:30
  • Don't agree about swapping the axes FWIW @RaymondTimmermans - in the example given, the x-axis is basically a categorisation and the y-axis is quantity of records which fall into that categorisation. It's essentially a histogram and I for one would definitely expect the axes to be as the OP described them. – 3N1GM4 Jan 18 '18 at 12:40

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I'm certain you cannot calculate the risk of ruin this way. You'll get some kind of number, but it won't be related to ruin.

If your data merely contains the hands PLAYED, and it's limited to pre-selected winning players, what kind of information does it represent? By definition, your players are never ruined. I suppose you could get some kind of metric saying something like "This metric has something to do with the relative values of hands", but we already know that AJ is better than A7.

Another way of looking at this: how I play AJ is very different than how you might play AJ. We have totally different strategies. If your data set pre-selects for winning players, then your analysis can only tell us what happens in the universe of PRE selected winners. It's not information, just numbers.

Interesting approach though! But I don't think it will tell you anything except stuff like pocket nines beats pocket sevens.

John Dee
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