Trips vs flush draw on the turn

Question

Assuming you had AK off suit in early position.

• BB is $6.
• You bet $30.
• Everybody folds to you, except one person in late position. Very loose aggressive player.
• He raises to $100. You call.
• Flop brings: A♥ 3♥ 7♠.
• You bet $30. He raises again to $100. You call.
• Turn brings: A♣.
• You check, he raises to $150.

You've both got another $500 left.

Should you shove at this point? Or just call? You've got an 84% chance of winning.

To me, shoving seems like the best decision, especially because of how aggressive the other player is, they'll definitely call. But even against a tighter player, shoving gives you way more fold equity.

What do you guys thing?

Answer 1

You've played the hand fairly weak up to this point: betting $30 into a $200 pot and checking the Ace on the turn. He can't give you much credit for an Ace at the moment - maybe he thinks you have a flush draw or a PP? He is likely to continue bluffing if you just call.

Generally how you proceed depends on your table image - if you aren't likely to be raising anything worse than an Ace at this point, the villain fold his flush draw to a large raise.

1. You can shove and win the pot right here. You won't be getting any more money from him though if he is a good player and you aren't getting out of line much.

2. You raise the turn to $350, he must put $200 extra into a ~$900 pot. If the villain has the flush draw he should still be making this call and you make some extra money. If he misses the river, though, he is unlikely to continue bluffing.

3. A better play is to be calling his turn bet and check calling him on the river as he will probably turn his draw into a bluff (he thinks he can represent the A or full house given how passively you have played it), and may well shove. I think this is probably the most profitable if he is a loose player and given the way you've played it. Saying this, you would need to be sure that he did have the flush to call any big river bluff.

so:

1. You shove, he folds his draw every time. +0EV after turn.
2. You raise to $350, he calls. 84% of times you get +$200, 16% of times you get -$550 (if you fold to a heart), giving you +EV of 80 after the turn.
3. You call, he shoves, you call. 84% of times you get +$500, 16% of times you get -$350 (if you fold to a heart), giving you +EV of $364.

The above is, of course, extremely simplified and requires you to know he has the flush draw.

Without knowing he has it, though, how can you give him credit for a flush draw? What is he raising to $100 in a $6 game? Are KQ hearts or 89 hearts really in his range? Possibly he has 77, trying to push you off it pre-flop, then made his set on the flop and turned a full house. More likely he has KK and thinks that you have the flush draw. He is a loose player and could be doing this with quite a few hands - 77 or A7/A3 beat you. All his bluffs, draws, or high PPs are behind. I think you should assume you are ahead and be check calling but shouldn't shove -he is only ever calling with the part of his range that has you beat. I don't think there is any fold equity.

Answer 2

You think he's on a flush draw but he probably has a high Ax or a high pair. Even if you're 100% sure that he holds 2 hearts eg. 9♥8♥, the correct play is to bet/raise 50% (or more) of the pot on the Turn to give him at least 25% pot odds while he has about 20% card odds with 1 card to come to hit his hypothetical flush.

You can try to bet more if you're sure he's going to call you; aggressive players like to bet but surprisingly they easily fold if they met with aggression. Shove may easily throw them out the pot and you win nothing. You want to win money out of him by making him play at lower odds.

Having said that, i like your check on Turn, since you're against an aggro. Check-raise works better in these cases and of course you have to raise now. If the raise leaves you pot-commited then you shove. In any case (either you're the aggressor or not), a 50% bet of pot leaves him with less odds to hit the flush.

Answer 3

Basically if you believe that you have the player beat and that he will call I would shove, otherwise I would just let him donk off some more money. Since you have 84% chance of winning, the ideal is to get as much from him as possible. If you believe he has an ace or draw at this point, you just need to estimate the likelihood that he is going to call.

There are downsides to shoving at this point, the biggest of course is that he has a full house, and you come up empty. The other is that he lays down a hand that you beat. Another is that he is bluffing and willing to keep bluffing.

Just because the player is loose and aggressive, it does not mean he will not lay down a hand. I would seriously consider that letting him stay the aggressor just might be the best play. Check raising the river all in might work a little better if he has a hand or is on a bluff. If he is bluffing you really have not lost anything because he is not going to call an all in. Better to let him try one more bluff.

If he is not bluffing, just simply believes he has the best hand with some ace and a bad kicker, let him stay in the lead and figure out how to get your whole stack. tipping him off at this point does not help your cause. If you make your move on the river when the pot is something much larger like 6-700 he is more likely to make a bad call, even though he is almost certain you have him beat, since the pot is offering so much overlay.

Some might suggest shutting it down with the all in, may not be so bad, but if you have such a huge edge you do not want him to fold before he has all his money in and concedes at the show down. If you have some bankroll considerations, like your playing with the money for babies milk and new shoes, you might want to try taking the pot as is or minimize what you are getting in.

Answer 4

First I would not necessarily put him on a flush draw. He raised pre flop with only you. Flush draw does not play well head up and you know he does not have the Ace. $100 preflop with even K little suited is very aggressive.

A flush draw would likely just call the $30 on the flop to see another card for free. $100 is more of a value bet.

On the draw why did you bet $30 into a $200+ pot? That is not even a value bet for top pair. You had a good sized pot. You should have put out a pot or 2/3 sized pot bet to push him off a draw.

Based on bets through the turn my read is a pocket pair and if 33 or 77 you are beat. At this point he really likes his hand. He is building the pot without scaring you off. He is pot committed. $150 is the right amount of money to have you pot committed at the river. If he wanted you off the hand he would have pushed at the turn.

If you call the $150 you are both basically pot committed so you might as well push. Based on how he bet for far I don't see him folding. Even if a heart comes at the river and he pushed I think you should call as he could do that on a mid pair you have beat. You might as well push.

What did he show? Was he on a pair?