In the physical world there is no such thing as a causeless accident. Instead there is always a causal chain leading up to the point where the accident occurs. If we know the physics behind each causal step we can associate an occurrence probability for each step and the overall probability of the accident will then be the product of those individual probabilities.
So, imagine an engine on a jet liner explodes at takeoff, resulting in a disastrous accident. Examination of the engine wreckage demonstrates that the engine exploded because it ran out of lubricating oil. Further examination reveals that the oil plug which is unscrewed from the engine in order to fill it with fresh oil during maintenance was screwed into the engine without its sealing gasket, called an O-ring. Examination of the maintenance records for the plane reveals that the mechanic whose job it was to top off the oil level in the engine had not attended the training session in which the proper insertion of the O-ring had been demonstrated. His HR records revealed that his new supervisor had not signed him up for the training session when he was hired, and the HR department had no way tracking compliance with required training sessions, and so on.
Full control of the environment cannot be guaranteed always and in every circumstance which is why we have invented things like checklists and structural redundancy and safety factors and standard procedures and mandatory inspections- and the systematic study of causal chains in complex systems.