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I see this everywhere? When someone believes something is impossible, someone else claims that "people believed flying was impossible until it became possible too so," as though anything that's believed to be impossible is "possible"

Is this a fallacy? Wat kind of a fallacy?

ActualCry
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    [Faulty generalization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faulty_generalization). – RodolfoAP Mar 12 '22 at 07:11
  • The argument as presented is a faulty generalization fallacy. But a slight modification to the argument would not be a fallacy, but would instead suggest that "B is thought to be impossible" is a likely failure of imagination or argument from incredulity fallacy. Note "B is thought impossible" does not justify "B IS impossible". See this answer: https://philosophy.stackexchange.com/questions/57825/is-i-cannot-imagine-a-mechanism-for-x-to-happen-so-x-can-never-happen-a-named – Dcleve Mar 14 '22 at 15:58

2 Answers2

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Short Answer

To ascribe the outcome of a current situation to a prior one based on a superficial analysis is hasty generalization.

Long Answer

To expound, a hasty generalization happens when one creates a rule based on an insufficient sample. With a substantial sample, one can use inductive reason to make a probabilistic claim. A man comes home and parks on the right side of a wide driveway 24 days in a row, it's not unreasonable to venture a claim that he will do so on the 25th day, particularly if other regularities and inferences exist. But, to venture that same claim after the first time he parks in such a fashion would be a hasty generalization. Let's take a look at your example.

When someone believes something is impossible, someone else claims that "people believed flying was impossible until it became possible too so" as though anything that's believed to be impossible is "possible"

So, is it true that some people somewhere claim that flight by machine was impossible, and then did the Wright brothers accomplish flight about 5 years into the 20th century showing such a claim was wrong? Absolutely! This is ONE instance where that which was claimed impossible was accomplished. In July of 1969, Apollo 11 landed humans on the moon again demonstrating what SEEMS impossible is often possible with ingenuity and adequate resources. But, does that mean based on these two prominent examples that all claims of impossibility are inherently flawed? Of course not! That would be a silly conclusion, because these are just two examples, and to generalize their outcomes to all outcomes would be rather hasty.

Let's say the claim is now "Fusion is impossible, because it's been 20 years away from happening for the last 40 years now." Certainly, one might retort, this isn't the first time what has been claimed is impossible will be shown to be possible. But can we draw the conclusion that fusion will certainly happen? Absolutely not! First, it might be a false analogy to draw parallels between flight and fusion. Second, there might be unknowns about subatomic particles that fusion researchers are unaware of. Lastly, there may be unknown unknowns! Engineering proceeds by prototyping and then failing and correcting often using abductive reasoning to move forward to the fulfill the problem specification. That's because 1. Reason is defeasible meaning that one simple fact can completely defeat an argument regarding a prognostication. 2. Empirical evidence is often discovered fortuitously.

Now, the final important thing to recognize when arguing with informal logic is that matters aren't black and white, but rather are strong and cogent to a degree. One can certainly draw parallels to flight and the moon landing to butress one's argument, but one has to do so very well, by showing through argumentation by analogy why the prior instances lend weight to the conclusion. And there's no royal road to creating an argument to draw a conclusion. It's quite an art form to build a solid argument, and even then most philosophers characterize knowledge as fallibilistic.

J D
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It's not a fallacy. The implicit argument is not what you seem to assume:

1. A was thought to be impossible.
2. A was possible.
Therefore,
3. All things thought to be impossible are possible.

That argument would be invalid, but that is not the point being made. The implicit argument being made is rather the valid:

1. A was thought to be impossible
2. A was possible.
Therefore,
4. Some things that are thought to be impossible are possible.

Then in a particular argument, it would continue:

5. B is thought to be impossible.
4. Some things that are thought to be impossible are possible.
Therefore
6. B may be possible (despite that you think it is impossible).
David Gudeman
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  • It should be a fallacy to claim it's definitely possible ... Just because something was possible, doesn't mean something else will be. The so-called "valid" version isn't what I've seen – ActualCry Mar 13 '22 at 02:28
  • Well, the extension might depend on the modality at work here. After all, in S5, if something is possibly possible then it's just possible simpliciter. That's not to say we can presume the modal logic here is some particular modal logic, but in some logics, this might be a valid inference. – Paul Ross Mar 13 '22 at 10:59
  • @PaulRoss, this is not modal possibility. "Possible" in this usage just means something like "there is some technique for accomplishing B". – David Gudeman Mar 13 '22 at 11:26
  • @ActualCry, have you ever examined the issue? When you think someone is making the first argument, have you ever tried to clarify by asking them, "Are you saying that because one thing thought impossible turned out to be possible, that means everything that is thought to be impossible is actually possible?" I find it hard to believe any rational person would say "yes" to that question. – David Gudeman Mar 13 '22 at 11:28
  • @DavidGudeman -- This is not only a good explanation of the point, but it also highlights that "B is thought to be impossible" is very plausibly a failure of imagination, or argument from incredulity fallacy. See the top answer here: https://philosophy.stackexchange.com/questions/57825/is-i-cannot-imagine-a-mechanism-for-x-to-happen-so-x-can-never-happen-a-named – Dcleve Mar 14 '22 at 15:53