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In North America, we celebrate a glorious holiday called Groundhog Day. On the second of February, the marmots awaken and leave their burrows, along with their families, to examine the weather. If the animals see their shadows, they'll retreat back in, and it means six more weeks of winter in the Northern Hemisphere. On the other hand, if they don't see their shadows, spring is well on its way. Hurray!

For example, examine this poem from Scotland.

If Candle-mas Day is bright and clear, There'll be two winters in the year.

If Candle-mas be fair and bright, Winter has another flight.

If Candle-mas brings clouds and rain, Winter will not come again.

Now, skepticism says groundhogs are unable to predict future weather events. But are they so sure? Isn't it possible that groundhogs can sense things about weather that we are unable to? I understand marmots are dull sighted, but have an incredibly good sense of smell. It makes sense then, these rodents, are able to detect things about weather us humans are unable to?

Michael Lee
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  • Err, how does the poem relate to groundhogs? Also the question as written is more "is there any possible way this could work?", which dosen't have much to do with experiencing life from a groundhog's point of view. – Weaver Feb 02 '15 at 03:48
  • @StarWeaver Do you not think life should be full of laughter from time to time? What would philosophy be without it. – Michael Lee Feb 02 '15 at 04:43
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    I'm voting to close this question as off-topic because I don't see the philosophical relevance. Whether or not they can predict the weather is *not* a question that belongs here. – iphigenie Feb 02 '15 at 13:41
  • @iphigenie Fair enough. – Michael Lee Feb 02 '15 at 16:52
  • This question does not appear to be about philosophy within the scope defined in the help center. Biology questions which merely ask "how things are" (descriptive knowledge) do not really fit within our expertise here on Philosophy.SE. – stoicfury Feb 03 '15 at 02:40
  • I sincerely apologize for posting this question. – Michael Lee Feb 03 '15 at 20:37

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A Wikipedia lookup definitively resolves this question.

... a Canadian study for 13 cities in the past 30 to 40 years found that the weather patterns predicted on Groundhog Day were only 37% accurate over that time period. According to the StormFax Weather Almanac and records kept since 1887, Punxsutawney Phil's weather predictions have been correct 39% of the time. The National Climatic Data Center has described the forecasts as "on average, inaccurate" and stated that "[t]he groundhog has shown no talent for predicting the arrival of spring, especially in recent years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groundhog_Day#Predictions_of_various_groundhogs_since_2008

user4894
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