I'm glad you have gathered that panels are like checkbooks (having a lot of checks doesn't mean having a lot of money). I like to order plenty of checks, and I like to have plenty of breaker spaces.
Figuring out how much ampacity you're actually using is a tricky but well-solved problem. The numbers on the breaker trips are useless; for instance if you have 40A breaker on an air conditioner and 50A on electric heat, does that count as 90 or only 50? How about a 15A breaker to a 1A refrigerator?
This is solved by a gold-standard way (couple of them) of doing a Load Calculation, relying on nameplate data and standard formulas. On residential:
- Large loads (water heater, A/C, dryer etc.) are based either on nameplate, a standard allocation, or a formula that estimates practical usage.
- Range/oven use a complicated formula
- 1500 VA for each kitchen and bathroom countertop circuit (at least 3)
- 3 VA *per square foot" as a dog-catch for all lighting and small-appliance loads.
What spits out is a number (expressed in VA, similar to watts) which says how big your service needs to be - say 18400 VA. You divide that by 240V and that gives you the service amps you need.
Keep in mind, the emerging tech of "smart panels". They monitor your current, and have the physical ability to interrupt loads under software command - like tanked water heater, dryer, EV charging and the like. So you can put a controller and some smart breakers in, and say "stay under 150A" - that removes the need for a service heavy-up. I'm speaking entirely of self-directed demand-side manamagement.
Of course this creates a business opportunity with the power company for cooperative demand-side management. So far, that's being implemented in very klutzy, ham-handed ways... but there are much better ways to do that, and we think they'll come around quickly to that.