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In a deepstack tournament with 1,000 entrants and 350 remaining players, the hero finds themselves with 22 BB plus antes. The villain, who has a large stack of over 200x BB, has been consistently raising with AX+ to 3x BB. In this particular hand, the hero is on the button and holds K♣ Q♣. The villain, in mid positions, opens with 3 times the big blind and the big and small blinds fold.

The flop reveals A♥ 8♣ 5♣

The villain leads the betting with a bet of half the pot size. Although the outcome is not important, I am interested in understanding the math and strategy involved. According to the heads-up solver, the hero's hand is calculated to be behind with a 46.9% to 53.1% probability.

Given the above information, what would be the optimal decision for the hero based on the principles of ICM and/or game theory?

Scott Boston
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  • How far from the money are you, how much do you care about cashing or not? I'm inclined to call here. Would love to know more information about villain, like do they tend to lead flop often but check when they miss on the turn, how do they respond to re-raises, etc. – Grinch91 Jun 26 '23 at 10:57
  • Without knowing more, I'm inclined to call as if they're consistently raising they're likely going to continue if you make your flush, and if you miss well you can save a few BBs at a critical stage. – Grinch91 Jun 26 '23 at 12:49
  • @Grinch91 Yes, I am with you, I did call. However, I am curious to what the math says if I can range the villain to AX+. I want to remove emotion such as "caring about cashing or not", what does the math say. Thank you for your insight and reponse! – Scott Boston Jun 26 '23 at 14:11

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