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Questions tagged [bayesian]

Bayesian reasoning is a probabilistic approach to inductive and abductive reasoning, based on Bayes' rule, that posits when one event implies a second event is likely, that given the second event occurring, that increases the likelihood of the first event.

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Is Occam's Razor a Prior?

In Bayesian statistics, the posterior probability of a hypothesis is composed of two parts: the prior, reflecting our initial belief in a certain hypothesis, and the likelihood, which represents how well our observations are explained by each…
J.Galt
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Can a zero prior probability for some theories be justified?

Let us assume the case of psychics and call the hypothesis of a “psychic explanation” H. Bayesian theory tells you to never assign a prior of zero. This is because if P(H) = 0, then no amount of observations can make that hypothesis likely as an…
thinkingman
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Does this Sleeping Beauty problem show conflicting priors?

Let's say that there are three beauties; Michael, Jane, and Jill. They are put to sleep and assigned a random number from {1, 2, 3}. If the coin lands heads then 1 is woken on Monday. If the coin lands tails then 2 is woken on Monday and 3 is woken…
Michael
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Logical Interpretations of Probability

According to Wikipedia's page on probability interpretations... Logical probabilities are conceived (for example in Keynes' Treatise on Probability) to be objective, logical relations between propositions (or sentences), and hence not to depend in…
user48028
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Are there any examples of two theories that accurately describe a phenomenon where the more complex one was found to be correct?

I was reading this answer on how Solomonoff's theory of inductive inference can be used to posit the more correct theory amongst a set that provide the expected "answer", where the shorter, or less complex, of the set has the highest likelyhood of…
joshperry
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Does a 100% degree of belief imply that no amount of evidence can change your mind?

As a reminder, in Bayesian epistemology, given a hypothesis H and new evidence E, it is recommended to update your degree of belief using the formula P (H|E) = (P (E|H) * P(H))/P(E). P (H) is the prior probability of the hypothesis being true. In…
thinkingman
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Is there any philosophy that specifically argues against subjective probability?

When I say subjective probability, I am referring to the notion of defining a probability in relation to a credence of belief. For example, one may say that there’s a very high probability that the sun will rise tomorrow or that there’s a low…
thinkingman
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How to accomodate hyperintensionality in a Bayesian framework?

Generally, propositions are modelled as sets of possible worlds, and Bayesians define a credence function on the set of those propositions. They then adopt new credence functions in response to new evidence in a way determined by Bayesian…
Rando McRandom
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What approaches are there to resolving the problem of new theories in Bayesian epistemology?

Bayesianism is thought to have a problem accounting for the development of new theories/beliefs. Since Bayesians would like to proceed by updating prior credences in response to new evidence via Bayesian conditionalization, the discovery/invention…
Rando McRandom
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What is my fallacy? LSAT Reasoning Question: Titanium Ink

I have a question regarding an LSAT Reasoning question and it drives me crazy Question is: Until recently it was thought that ink used before the sixteenth century did not contain titanium. However, a new type of analysis detected titanium in the…
user49145
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Bayesian reasoning regarding perceived unlikely outcomes

So this is a Bayesian question in words first and then I'll try to put a little mathematical meat on it. Admittedly, this will eventually be about teleological reasoning, but I would like you to just consider the thought experiment as it is…
robert bristow-johnson
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Bayesian argument for combining extraordinary claims

This is an improved version of Backwards Bayesian argument for alien visitation? It is said that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence and therefore this criterion is applied to every claim independently. But can extraordinary claims…
John Eastmond
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Absolute confirmation of Carnap and consistency condition

In formal epistemology, consistency condition states that: An evidence E can't confirm both H and its negation, not-H. Carnap states that for the concept of absolute confirmation, the consistency condition holds: if E confirms H iff P(H/E)>k for a…
PwNzDust
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Using Bayes Theorem in a Court Case - dementia and testamentary capacity

I'm trying to learn how to use Bayes theorem to explain probabilities in court cases related to dementia and testamentary capacity. Let's say that we are trying to explain the probability for a person who has dementia to have testamentary capacity,…
Philosophy101
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Does Bayes' Theorem justify rejecting an argument for the supernatural from a well-supported miracle?

Suppose you have really good evidence for a miracle. Let's say that given the evidence, the probability of the miracle having occurred is about 80%. Now, you also know that miracles can only occur if the supernatural exists. Moreover, the prior…
natojato
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